CES 2026 Trends:
Hardware Growth Flatlines
Jan 30, 2026
8 min read
CES 2026 had 148,000 attendees and over 4,000 exhibitors. But the real story wasn't on any show floor. It was in the CTA forecast released opening day: hardware unit sales up 0.7%, software and services hitting $194 billion. The gap between those two numbers explains everything happening in consumer technology right now. Walk the halls and you see two different shows. One is about products. The other is about what happens after the product ships.
Key CES 2026 Statistics: Revenue Up 3.7%, Unit Sales Flat
Global consumer electronics market: $1.14 trillion in 2026, according to current projections.
US market specifically: $565 billion, growing 3.7% this year per CTA data.
Unit shipments across the industry: up just 0.7%.
That math tells the story. Revenue grows faster than unit sales. Value per device is increasing. The gap between commodity hardware and premium experience widens.
In China's display technology sector alone, companies like BOE, TCL, and Hisense now control over 55% of global market share. In robotics, Chinese firms manufactured the majority of approximately 13,000 humanoid robots shipped globally in 2025.But market share in units doesn't equal market share in profits. Premium segments capture disproportionate value. That's where brand narrative matters most.
Why Hardware Growth Flatlined at CES 2026:
The $194B Software Shift
CTA's forecast says it plainly: hardware sales will grow 0.7% this year. Software and services? $194 billion.
The shift isn't subtle anymore. Cars don't sell on horsepower specs. They sell on OTA capabilities. Home appliances aren't one-time purchases. They're AI Agent platforms delivering ongoing experiences. Robots aren't about mechanical precision. They're about the intelligence layer running on top.
Hardware has become the carrier. The value lives in what happens after the box leaves the factory. Visit any booth and you see it. The demo isn't about the device specs. It's about what the software unlocks three months after purchase. The conversation isn't about build quality. It's about how the AI improves over time.
This year's total industry revenue will hit $565 billion, according to CTA projections. Almost none of that growth comes from selling more units. It comes from making each unit worth more through software.
Chinese Companies Captured 55% of Humanoid Robot Exhibitors at CES 2026
837 Chinese exhibitors at CES 2026. That's 25.35% of all companies, second only to US-based firms.
In robotics, the numbers get more striking. Of 38 humanoid robot exhibitors, 21 came from China. That's 55% of the category. Chinese robotics leaders, including Unitree Robotics with their G1 martial arts robot, AgiBot (founded by former Huawei "Genius Youth" Peng Zhihui) with commercial deployments, and Galbot with wheeled humanoids for retail, didn't show concept videos. They demonstrated working products already operating in Chinese factories, hotels, and warehouses.
VSDesign attended three key events during CES week: the NetEase North America Innovation & Capital dinner, Asia Night hosted by the US-China Business Alliance, and closed-door sessions with Sensor Tower. The conversations there focused less on engineering capability, which is already proven, and more on something harder to solve.
How do Chinese brands build sustainable global presence when AI is rewriting the discovery rules?
Why AI Recommendation Systems Are Replacing Traditional Search for Product Discovery
The old path was simple. User searches on Google or Amazon. They compare and click. A brand wins or loses based on its SEO and ad spend.
That path is closing. AI Agents now sit between the consumer and the decision. When someone asks their AI assistant for a product recommendation, the brands that don't exist in the AI's recommendation logic simply disappear from consideration.
Over 148,000 people attended CES 2026, and the recurring theme across panels and private discussions was physical AI; intelligence moving from screens into the physical world through robots, vehicles, and smart devices.
The competitive question isn't "do you have AI?" anymore. Everyone has AI. The question is whether your brand exists in the decision-making layer when AI systems recommend solutions to real people.
The New Playbook: Chinese AI Brands Skip Domestic Market, Go Global Immediately
The new generation of Chinese AI companies isn't following the old playbook. They're not building domestic market share first, then expanding internationally later.They're launching globally from day one. Different strategy, different narrative, different ambition.
When hardware growth is nearly flat, premium positioning is the only path to meaningful margins. You need brand power that justifies higher prices and shields you from commodity competition.This requires more than translation. It requires rethinking how you talk about what you make. The story shifts from "efficient Chinese manufacturing" to "global technology standard."The trade environment makes this urgent, not optional. When tariffs and regulations create friction, brand equity becomes the buffer that keeps customers paying attention.
Product Design + Brand Narrative:
The Two Layers That Determine Global Success
This connects to what VSDesign focuses on: the two layers that determine whether a tech company succeeds globally.
First layer: product and software interaction design. Making AI systems that actually work in users' hands. The difference between a feature that impresses in a demo and a feature people use daily. Building software experiences that justify the hardware premium.
Second layer: brand narrative and growth systems. How you show up in global markets. How you get mentioned when AI systems make recommendations? How you build recognition that survives market volatility.
A great product with weak positioning never scales. Strong positioning on a mediocre product doesn't survive first contact with users. The companies winning in this environment solve both simultaneously. They build software experiences good enough to create genuine advocates. Then they build brand systems that amplify those advocates into sustainable growth.
What Makes AI Products Win After CES 2026: Utility Over Features
CES 2026 made something clear: the race beyond AI features. Every booth at the convention center had AI plastered on their walls. Some of it made sense (PCs, security systems). Some of it felt forced (slippers, hair dryers, bed frames).
The real competition is about three things:
Does your software actually work? Not in the demo. In someone's home after six months of use. When the novelty wears off and only utility remains.
Does the experience feel natural? AI that requires users to change their behavior usually fails. AI that adapts to existing behavior usually wins.
Can you sustain global growth? One good product cycle isn't enough. You need brand systems that work across markets, distribution channels that scale, and positioning that survives competitive pressure.
2026 AI Predictions: Physical AI, Commercial Robotics, and Brand-First Competition
The conversation at CES 2026 split between excitement and pragmatism.
Excitement: At Lenovo's Tech World keynote during CES 2026, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang called physical AI 'the ChatGPT moment for robotics,' predicting some human-level capabilities in robots by end of 2026. But Boston Dynamics CEO Robert Playter offered a contrarian view: 'We spent the past decade doing YouTube-video parkour. Now the hard stuff is useful work.
Pragmatism: Boston Dynamics CEO Robert Playter said they spent the past decade doing "YouTube-video parkour," but now "the hard stuff is useful work". The industry is shifting from impressive demos to actual commercial deployment.
Between those two perspectives lives the actual opportunity. Companies that can deliver both the working technology and the brand positioning to support it will capture outsized returns in a market where unit growth has flatlined.
For Chinese AI companies specifically, the moment requires different thinking. Technical excellence is table stakes. Manufacturing scale is assumed. The differentiator is whether you can build brand equity that survives in a world where AI mediates customer decisions.That's the work ahead. Building products that can sustain global brands. And building brands that can command global premium positioning. The hardware is good enough. The software needs refinement. The brand narrative needs complete rethinking.
CES 2026 showed us where the industry stands. The companies that solve all three layers simultaneously will define what comes after.